For those who are coming across this for the first time, this is my continuing journey to perform my own tracking of COVID-19 in Texas. Why? Mainly because I because fed up with the cherry picked numbers that are being represented by the state government and the media. I wanted to show the meaningful stats, in a quickly digestible format, that allow people to see what is happening and make their own decisions. Secondly, I am a stats guy in the medical industry, so I’m doing it for my own edification as well.
This was a very interesting week for multiple reasons. First, the positivity rate dropped for the 4th week in a row! That ‘s excellent news. Consecutive drops of 0.155%, 0.243%, 0.244% and now 0.203%. Second, we have a drop in the death rate per infection for the first time since I started generating the stats for this tracker (this is also directly related to the corresponding increase in survival rate/infection). More good news! Next, we have a single digit increase in deaths >65 per 100K population for the first time since I started tracking. This week’s increase was half of what it has been in recent weeks. And finally, there is, essentially, a completely flat survival rate per population. With a decrease of only two thousandths of one percent, it is virtually unchanged from last week. What does all of this mean? Well, even with a deeply flawed testing and reporting process, there are multiple tangible indicators that things are leveling off. This is with testing reporting that has been reporting multiple tests from the same individuals (re-testing for work or personal reasons, for example), reporting “probable” positive cases based on exposure, and RNA tests that can give different results for a number of reasons.
Today’s bonus statistic:
Sweden, with essentially no lockdowns, has a death rate per 100K people of 57.6.
Texas, which has been largely shut down for six months, has a death rate per 100K people of 50.6.
Use this as you will and please draw your own conclusions. In my mind, the picture is very clear now, but you may see it differently. My hope is that there will be enough of an open dialogue, which includes meaningful facts, that we can speak with confidence and make appropriate decisions to get the world back to normal.
Stay tuned and subscribe. I share this data weekly on my Facebook and Twitter pages, but I will try to start publishing them weekly here as well.
And always remember: Don’t be a dick.